As we go to press, although this could change between Halloween and the November 6 mid-term elections, the consensus appears that the fight in the U.S. Senate over the Supreme Court nomination of Brett Kavanaugh may have propelled to victory the Senate candidates who are up for re-election in the red states of Texas, North Dakota, and Tennessee. However, the Kavanaugh hearings may have ignited Democrats, especially those who live in blue suburban congressional districts. Going into the mid-term elections, Republicans hold a 51-49 advantage over Democrats in the U.S. Senate; however, in the U.S. House of Representatives, Republicans hold a 23-seat majority. According to the website FiveThirtyEight, Republicans have a 4-5 (79%) chance of retaining control of the Senate, while Democrats have a 6-7 (86%) chance of gaining control of the House. The election results on November 7 will determine how accurate FiveThirtyEight and other political handicappers do with their prognostications.
In addition, voters in 46 states will go to the polls on November 6 to determine the outcome of over 7,000 state legislative and 36 gubernatorial races. Of those 7,000 plus legislators, 4,100 seats (56%) are occupied by Republicans, while 3,118 seats (42%) belong to Democrats. The remaining seats (2%) are held by Independents. Currently, out of the 98 state chambers, 65 are held by Republicans, while 31 are held by Democrats and two chambers are tied; however, voters will not only be selecting who will represent them in their respective state capitals. According to the National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL), there are over 160 statewide ballot measures that will address issues such as finance, medical, and hot-button social issues.
Three states, California, Colorado, and Missouri, have ballot measures that seek to raise taxes for transportation construction projects. In California, Proposition 6 seeks to repeal a 2017 transportation funding bill that established a 12-cent gas tax and raised taxes on diesel fuel. The Missouri legislature voted to increase the state’s gas tax, but the legislation requires an amendment to the Missouri Constitution. A “yes” vote on Proposition D amends the Missouri Constitution, which increases the gas tax by two and a half cents per gallon annually for four years beginning July 1, 2019. Colorado Proposition 110 increases the state sales tax. The revenue would be dedicated to transportation projects. A second proposition in Colorado, Proposition 109, finances transportation projects through revenue bonds but does not include a revenue source for funding.
One final point concerning state elections is that a large number of these elected state officials will have a significant role in how political maps are drawn based on the 2020 census data. The census data will be used to apportion U.S. congressional representation and to draw congressional and state legislative districts, redistricting. The process of redistricting, a.k.a. “gerrymandering,” provides state legislators and governors the opportunity to reshape districts that may be advantageous to a certain political party.
2019 NASBP Government Relations Agenda
The 2019 NASBP Government Relations Agenda was approved by the NASBP Board at the NASBP Midyear Meeting. The Agenda describes three approaches concerning how NASBP Government Relations staff will advance the 2019 Agenda, which includes: (1) direct advocacy, (2) working with coalition partners, and (3) use of NASBP advocacy tools. Specific advocacy tools include the NASBP SuretyPAC and participation in the NASBP Legislative Fly-in, which is scheduled for June 5-6, 2019. Mark your calendars and use the NASBP Producers Communications Toolkit, a grassroots resource of the NASBP “Be Guaranteed to Succeed” Campaign, when meeting with public and elected officials to reinforce the value of surety bonds.
As you know, NASBP’s SuretyPAC is the only federal political action committee (PAC) that is 100% devoted to representing the surety industry. After the mid-term elections, NASBP will will ask the NASBP membership to complete the SuretyPAC Prior Approval Form and authorize their agency or surety for upcoming years. The NASBP SuretyPAC can only directly solicit for voluntary contributions from agencies and sureties that have given their authorization to the SuretyPAC. Firms can provide this authorization by having the NASBP key contact for the firm complete the SuretyPAC Prior Approval Form. Remember, that a firm can authorize only one PAC during a calendar year. NASBP will inform those whose authorizations are about to expire.