NASBP Focal Point – November 6, 2024

Federal Election Results

Observation/Takeaways: At 5:30am (est), former President Donald Trump secured the necessary 270 electoral votes by winning the state of Wisconsin to become President-Elect Trump. As we go to press, Trump was also leading in the battleground states of AZ and NV. Trump was able to break through the blue-wall battle ground states of MI, PA and WI, which Vice President Kamala Harris needed in order to secure victory. According to exit polling conducted by AP/VOTECAST, 63% believed that the economy was not good and 70% believed the economy was on the wrong track. Exit polling numbers such as these do not bode well an incumbent administration. Trump improved on his 2020 numbers in both red and blue states while appealing to younger voters and voters of color. According to AP/VOTECAST, Harris won young voters (18-29) by just eight points, a 23-point decrease from President Biden. Furthermore, Harris carried Black voters by 66 points compared to Biden’s 81- point margin in 2020.

Control of Congress

Senate: Prior to yesterday’s election, Democrats held a 2-seat majority, 51-49. with 34 seats up for election. As we go to press, Republicans were able to flip three seats, WV (Jim Justice (R) replaces retiring Joe Manchin (D)), OH (incumbent Sherrod Brown (D) is defeated by Bernie Moreno (R)) and MT (incumbent Jon Tester (D) is defeated by Tim Sheehy (R)), which now gives Republicans a 52-43 majority. Several Senate races are still too close to call, MI open seat challengers (Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) vs. Rep. Mike Rogers (R)), NV, (incumbent Jackie Rosen (D) vs. Sam Brown (R)), and PA (incumbent Bob Casey (D) vs. David McCormick (R)).

House: All 435 House seats were up for election. Prior to the election, Republicans controlled a slim majority, 220-112 with 3 vacancies. Most House races remain too close to call in order to determine which party will control the House in January 2025. In CA, several close House races may take several weeks to determine a winner. Democrats were able to flip two NY House seats–Rep. Brandon Williams (R) and Rep. Molinaro (R), while Laura Gillen (D) has a slight lead over Anthony D’ Esposito (R). Democrats Reps. Susan Wild (D-PA) and Matt Cartwright (D-PA) both conceded to their Republican challengers. The current party makeup in the House stands at 201 for the Republicans, 184 for the Democrats, with 50 seats still undecided.

Post-election panel: On December 4, NASBP will host a panel of construction industry lobbyists who will share their thoughts on the state and federal election results and the impact on their respective organizations. Confirmed panelists include Dana Thompson, Washington Representative from the Women Construction Owners & Executives (WCOE); John “JB” Byrd, representing the National Society of Professional Surveyors (NSPS); Jordan Howard, representing the Associated General Contractors of America (AGC); and Mike Oscar, representing the American Subcontractors Association (ASA). The session will be moderated by Larry LeClair, NASBP Director of Government Relations.

State Elections

Governors’ races: Prior to the election, Republicans controlled 27 governor’s offices while Democrats held 23. Of the 11 governorships up for election, of which 8 have no incumbent candidate, only New Hampshire’s gubernatorial race was rated a toss-up by the Cook Political Report. In NH, former U.S. Senator Kelly Ayotte (R), defeated Joyce Craig by nearly 9 points. The other closely watched race was in NC, where Josh Stein (D) defeated Lt. Governor, Mark Robinson (R).

State Legislatures: 5,808 legislative seats were up for election out of 7,386 state legislative seats. Prior to the election, Republicans controlled 57 state chambers, while Democrats controlled 41 state chambers. Nebraska is unicameral nonpartisan chamber and Pennsylvania’s legislature is equally divided amongst the political parties. The National Conference of State Legislatures is tabulating the results of state legislative races.

State Ballot Measures: Voters cast ballots on over 150 ballot initiatives on issues ranging from issues taxes, municipal bonds, civil and criminal justice reforms, access to reproductive rights and election law. For additional information regarding state ballot initiatives, please see the National Conference of State Legislatures.

If you are aware of any bills impacting the industry, please reach out to Larry LeClair, NASBP’s Director of Government Relations, and let us know.