It’s that time of the year, folks, when the political pundits are out in full force, offering their predictions on which party will control the next session of the U.S. Congress. Some political maxims, however, remain constant; for example, since Reconstruction, the rule of American politics has been that the party controlling the White House during the midterm elections will lose seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.

Today, considering the Democrats have only a slight majority (222-213) in the House and are challenged by defending seats in Republican-leaning districts, while Republicans benefited from the re-drawing of congressional maps, it seems likely that Republicans will take control of the House. However, Democrats are somewhat sanguine about retaining control of the House or at least minimizing their losses, because they are protecting only a dozen vulnerable congressional districts; and they are hopeful about successfully flipping a few House seats currently held by weak GOP members, according to political pundits.

Handicapping which party will control the U.S. Senate (50-50, currently), however, is a bit more challenging. There are seven states—AZ, GA, NV, NH, PA, OH, and WI—that will decide which party controls the Senate. With only a few weeks left before the midterms, most of the political prognosticators and forecast models give a slight edge to the Democrats to either retain control or to add seats for these reasons: Democrats have the luxury of not defending seats in red states nor are they faced with competitive open seats; and GOP Senate primary winners in North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania replaced incumbents with candidates who may not be electable statewide.

Pundits believe that the forecast for Democrats retaining or adding Senate seats may have been projected much differently if different GOP candidates had won contentious primaries in those states. In particular, two Senate Democratic incumbents, Catherine Cortez Masto (NV) and Raphael Warnock (GA), are in races that are too close to call, according to recent polling. Besides those, one competitive seat held by Wisconsin Senator Ron Johnson remains competitive. Recent forecasting models, however, suggest that Senator Johnson’s numbers have improved and that he is favored to win reelection. An analysis of poll aggregator, FiveThirtyEight, has shifted the AZ race (Senator Mark Kelly vs. challenger Blake Masters) and the NH race (Senator Maggie Hassan vs. challenger Don Bolduc) to solid D. While the conventual thinking is that Democrats retain control in the Senate by a slim margin, it would not be a total surprise if forecasting models are off and Republicans are able to win these races.

Voter turnout will be the deciding factor to determine which party controls Congress in 2023. Did the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision allow the Democrats to play offense rather than just defense? Or are Republicans energized by inflation, high gas prices, and the President’s low approval rating (although it has risen somewhat) enough to flip control of the House and perhaps the Senate? Whichever party ultimately gains controls of the U.S. Congress, NASBP is well positioned to work with either governing party as our issues are considered non-partisan.

Should the Republicans gain control of the House, NASBP has worked with Representative Sam Graves (R-MO-6^th) on small business issues when he Chaired the House Small Business Committee. Graves is slated to Chair the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee should the Republicans win the House. Should the Democrats retain the majority in the House, NASBP has worked with the current Chair of the House Small Business Committee Nydia Velazquez (D-NY-7^th) as well as other Democrats on various House Committees. These two members of Congress are on opposite ends of the political spectrum, but they agree on surety-related small business matters. For those political junkies, buckle up: the midterm elections will be must-see TV.